Senate Minority Leader Brian W. Jones (R-San Diego) is sounding the alarm on a looming energy and economic crisis, warning that California gas prices could soar 75% to $8.43 per gallon in 2026 due to shutdowns of two major in-state refineries, according to a recent analysis by USC Professor Michael Mische. In a letter sent to Governor Gavin Newsom today, Leader Jones calls for urgent action to stop the refinery closures. Click here to read the letter.
“If the Governor doesn’t act now, Californians will be blindsided by sticker shock at the pump and skyrocketing prices on everyday goods,” said Leader Jones. “We’re talking about gas prices over $8.43 per gallon by the end of next year.”
The Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles is slated to shut down by the end of 2025, followed by the Valero refinery in Benicia in April 2026. These two facilities produce approximately 20% of California’s in-state gasoline supply.
A recent analysis by USC Professor Michael Mische projects that gas prices could surge 75% by the end of 2026 from current levels because of the refinery closures. His models estimate a jump to $6.43 per gallon by late 2025 following the Phillips 66 closure, and as high as $8.43 in 2026 after Valero shuts down. These forecasts, based on current crude oil prices, could climb even higher under volatile market conditions.
“Let’s be clear: Newsom owns this gas crisis. His policies have made it nearly impossible for California refineries to stay open. As Newsom eyes the White House, America should be watching closely: the crisis he created here could be the next national nightmare,” continued Leader Jones.
On top of pain at the pump, Leader Jones warns that the refinery closures threaten thousands of good-paying, union and trade jobs that support working families and local economies. The two refineries directly employ 1,300 Californians, and using the commonly accepted job multiplier for the industry at 2.3, indirectly support nearly 3,000 jobs statewide.
In Leader Jones’ letter, he warns that the loss of these refineries will destabilize fuel supply, drive gas prices through the roof, eliminate thousands of good-paying jobs, increase the state’s reliance on expensive out-of-state fuel, and jeopardize national security.
“We’re not just losing gas. We’re losing jobs, losing local economies, losing our grip on affordable living in California, and losing a critical layer of our national security,” concluded Leader Jones.
The letter also points to the Governor’s excessive regulations and financial burdens on gasoline producers, including SBX1-2, ABX2-1, and changes to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which have made it increasingly difficult for refineries to remain operational. To prevent refinery closures and ensure long-term energy stability, Leader Jones recommends the governor work directly with California’s fuel producers to find immediate solutions, which could include exploring investment tax credits and temporary or permanent relief from certain taxes and regulations.
Leader Jones has long warned that Governor Newsom’s policies would lead to a self-inflicted gas price crisis. In November 2024, Leader Jones published an op-ed in the San Diego Union-Tribune outlining how Newsom’s attack on our gas supply would force prices higher and squeeze working families. Click here to read the op-ed.